The examples of probabilistic argument they are based on the issuance of an opinion based on the possibility of the occurrence of an event or event.
The probabilistic arguments are expressed in two ways. Mainly the quantitative form is found, this is expressed in numbers between 0 and 10 or from 0% to 100%.
Statistically, for an event or fact to have reliability, the result must be greater than 0.51, which equals 51%.
On the other hand, the answer is expressed qualitatively when the result is affirmative or negative.
It is important to note that the probabilistic argument is a mathematical concept that is commonly linked to the laws of chance.
The 10 main examples of probabilistic argument
1- In the television industry
An expert in the field of television could say, for example, that there is a high probability that the year following the Emmy for best comedy will be won by the Modern Family series.
This is because the trend in the last five years has been that this series wins this award.
2- Chance
If a coin is thrown into the air, there is a 50% probability that it will be expensive and a 50% chance that it will be a cross.
This is because the currency only has two faces and when falling there are only two options.
3- In lotteries with tickets
If a raffle ticket of 100 numbers is purchased, the probability of winning is 1 in 100.
This is because 99 tickets remain, which are possible winners. In other words, in order to be 100% sure of being the winner, all tickets must be purchased.
4- On the charts
The possibility that exists of taking the ace of spades in the first hand of a game is 1 in 52. This result is due to the fact that the deck of poker cards has 52 cards, including the ace of spades.
In the game of poker the best players study the probability of each hand they draw.
5- Chance with the dice
The existing probability in throwing a die and that it falls in the number six, is 1 of 6. This is because the die has six faces, and in each one there is a number from 1 to 6.
6- Extraction of oranges and lemons at random
If 20 oranges and 10 lemons are in a basket, there is a 66.7% chance that the first fruit extracted from the basket is an orange.
This is because it is the majority. The other 33.3% is associated with lemons, which are a minority.
7- Probability in the biological sciences
If two peas are crossed, one with genes smooth (as dominant) and one with genes corrugated (as recessive or non-dominant), there is a possibility that the results of the crossing between these two peas are 75% smooth and 25% corrugated .
This conclusion is due to Mendel's second law, the law of character segregation in the second filial generation, which states that gametes can only contain one gene, and in this case the smooth gene was dominant.
8- Law of life
The existing probability that a person dies some day is 100%. This 100% certainty is due to the fact that all people die in one day.
9- Digital Marketing
There is a 88% chance that a Google user will never use the second search page, since the first page contains the best content.
10- Population probability
According to surveys, in Italy 96% of the population prefers to eat pasta. This is because it is one of the most prominent foods in the country and there are many varieties to satisfy different palates.
References
- Association of History of Statistics and Probability of Spain, J. S. (2006). History of probability and statistics (III). Madrid: Delta Publications.
- Mukhopadhyay, N. (2000). Probability and Statistical Inference. New York: CRC Press.
- Nett, R. (1980). Social research methodology. Texas: Threshing.
- Steiner, E. (2005). Mathematics for applied sciences. Madrid: Reverte.
- William Mendenhall, R. J. (2012). Introduction to Probability and Statistics. Boston: Cengage Learning.